NOTE: This is a project I did for Decision Sciences when I was in Georgia State's MBA program.  The work is not that good to be honest.  But it is good enough to teach me that October and November are the best times to fish the Louisiana Delta.  Bo

 

 

Project 1a: Charts and Graphs

Fishing the Louisiana Delta

MBA 8011 – Decision Science Foundations

By: Bo Crawford

 

 

Every year I spend some vacation time fishing the brackish waters of south Louisiana. (Click here for pictures of a recent trip.) While there a few months ago a Fish and Wildlife Agent conducted a survey and observed our catch.  When I was assigned this project I wondered if those surveys had been put into some type of useful data set. After contacting the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, I was ultimately able to collect some data from the National Marine Fisheries Service.  Unfortunately, the data they have collected seems to be designed for macro-management issues and are not much use to a recreational fisherman.  Nevertheless, I analyzed the data in the hopes that it would reveal some information that I can use in planning my annual vacation. 

 

First I was able to filter the data to include the State of Louisiana only.  Then I was able to filter “fish caught” to include three species of fish: Redfish (Red Drum), Speckled Trout (Spotted Sea Trout), and Black Drum.  I was also able to filter “trips” to include inshore fishing trips only.  The first graph I ran was a time-series line graph that shows numbers of trips for two month periods between 1986 and 2001.  I also was able to calculate the average catch per trip during these two month periods. 

 

 

 

 

At first glance two things stood out to me.  First, the trend for trips appears to be rising at a respectable rate (i.e. fishing is becoming a more popular sport).  In the January/February period of 1986 there were 118,000 recorded trips.  Fifteen years later, in 2001, there were 365,000 trips during the same period.    This number is disconcerting when one considers the erosion problems Louisiana marshes have experienced over the last 15 years.  The bottom line is that more and more anglers are fishing a smaller and smaller fishery every year. 

 

The second apparent trend is the fact that the number of trips taken appears to increase significantly during the summer months.  There appears to be a negative correlation to quantity of trips and fishing success (as measured by fish per trip). In other words, it appears that in the summer there a more fisherman competing to catch the same number of fish, and therefore the success of each individual angler drops.  This logic seems to make intuitive sense. 

 

Next, I ran a couple of scatter charts in order to test this theory.

 

 

This scatter chart disproves my theory about the increase in numbers of trips significantly affecting catches per trip.  Trips and FPT only have a negative correlation of .069.  At first glance this does not seem significant. However, it does appear that there has never been a two month period in which there is a high number of trips (>400,000) and the average catch rate has approached 8.  This would seem to indicate that the odds of having that banner fishing day that you can really brag about would be more likely to happen during the months when there are fewer boats on the water.

 

This brings up the question of what constitutes a “good day” on the water.  A histogram will help us answer this question.

 

 

 

The histogram shows that of 3 to 4 fish per trip per person is the most frequent two month average.  Based on this histogram, I’d say 8 fish per person is a good day and more than 11 per person could be considered a banner day.  Next, I would like to answer the question, “what time of year would I have the best chance of catching 8 or more fish per day?”

 

 

This is a very surprising graph.  This shows us that most fish are caught from September to December.  This is opposite of what I expected.  I always thought that once school starts in September, fishing pressure lessens because people are busy with other hobbies, such as football and hunting.  However, this graph suggests that this logic doesn’t hold true in Southern Louisiana.

 

 

 

 

This bar graph reveals that Nov/Dec has averaged the highest fish per trip (FPT) ratio over the last 15 years.  Now that I have determined the best time of year to vacation, I now need to determine what type of species to target.

 

 

 

These graphs indicate that speckled trout are the fish most targeted by anglers. 

 

Conclusion

 

Traditionally I have used my vacation time to fish in the spring or summer and primarily targeted redfish.  This data indicates that I may have more success fishing in the fall and targeting speckled trout.